Soft Predictions on the Impact of UBI in the US

Abstract:

The prospect of a universal method for securing a populous is obviously favorable. Universal Basic Income addresses many issues; and has the potential to consolidate services, and thus create new efficiency in social services. The concerns over sustainability are however warranted. As unnatural growth rates are incentivized, the economy will walk the path to crisis again; and the funding mechanism for UBI is likely to be borrowed from, for financial easing. This is not long term prediction

Stepping Forward:

Post implementation of UBI, it’s reasonable to suggest that there would be many positive outcomes.

* A general perception of increased economic security

This could impact quality of life in general. Crime rates could decrease significantly. Social unrest could decrease significantly. Minority disparity might be decreased significantly. Health and well being might be impacted in a positive manner; and the standard of living might rise significantly. There could be an enormous positive impact on the insurance industry as well.

* Homelessness might be eliminated

Depending upon the distribution and cost of living, those who now live in the streets might be capable of finding low cost housing. This would be a critical hand up; that could help them restart their lives.

* Social services may no longer be needed

Numerous social services are expensive to maintain. Consolidation of social service might make them unnecessary after a few to several years. The added income is likely to lift those below the poverty line to a point where other services are no longer required. Removing the services would then cut costs immensely.

* Technological unemployment might not be concerning

Depending upon again, the distribution and cost of living, unemployment and the negative consequences associated with it, might not be so concerning; in the presence of rapid increases in automation.

* Trickle down would occur consistently; as opposed to only during rapid growth

Healthy distribution of wealth tends to occur while economies are growing rapidly; and not so much otherwise. UBI would be a systemic mechanism to keep capital trickling down; supporting the consumer base, that supply side relies upon.

* Contribution to society might not be so coercive

With some form of guaranteed income, it’s more feasible for individuals to follow their passions; and have time to generate models for funding them.

Stepping Backward:

* Reliance upon central governance would greatly increase

Relative self-sufficiency is probably the most favorable condition for individuals. Reliance upon the governance is a welfare state; plain and simple. It would require a great deal of initiative in the populous to organize a emergent economy to promote this outcome.

* Social service might become a single point of failure

UBI could replace all social services and become a social safety net of sorts. This is in many ways efficient; however from an economic security standpoint, it lacks the built in contingencies that diversification provides. If it were to fail, the consequences would be unacceptably severe.

* Wealth aggregation would eventually siphon from the funding

The funding for UBI must be budgeted. Maximization of stockholder value creates unnatural growth rates that eventually saturate markets and decrease competition. The path to crisis is always followed into aggregation of wealth away from the general populous. This is eventually going to effect the funding for UBI no matter where it comes from. This specific prediction is a hard prediction.

* Qualifications for UBI might be legislated; making it conditional

As the economy proceeds through the crisis cycle toward instability, UBI might be denied to particular individuals with specific problems. This would not only not cut costs, it would increase costs. Unconditional distribution is probably the most cost effective manner of distribution. In order to make UBI conditional, it would take additions to the overhead of the program. This is something that is well understood to result in lack of efficiency and effect. It’s extremely probable that it’s much more cost effective for UBI to be unconditional than trying to cut costs by denials. The number of denials would very unlikely cover the costs of added overhead alone; yet similar legislation continues to be passed.

Predictions:

1) UBI will be implemented with considerations of qualifications; but may initially be unconditional.

2) The initial impact will be confusing; however the standard of living will rise.

3) The emergent economy that is being organized now will become fortified by increased participation.

4) Public health and life expectancy will be positively impacted; as stress related illness will decrease.

5) Crime rates and public acts of violence will decrease.

6) The economy will become unstable again; and efforts to make UBI conditional will proceed.

7) UBI will become inefficient and ineffective.

8) The next severe depression will occur regardless.