Natural Growth Rates and Socioeconomics

Synopsis:

Observations of growth rates are part and parcel of the observer; as modern theory suggests, but they are also a product of the time frame observed and the motives of the observer. The cognitive limitations of the observer and the tools at their disposal produce a perception of growth rates; that are subject to the capabilities and needs and desires of the observer. This perception of growth rates has an ulterior motive; as the utility of the information, for the observers’ purposes is the initial motive for collecting it. Sorting out these aspects of approximating growth rates, for the sake of economic study might help explain the propagation of economic crises.

Environmental Conditions:

Growth requires resources to occur. Resources are products of the environment in which the observed system grows. Though there is a natural preference in discrete systems themselves to grow exponentially, it is dependent upon whether or not it’s environment will accommodate it. For instance, it’s observed that cell division is exponential; however resources in the cultures’ environment is what facilitates it. Without the required resources, growth can not occur at all; and with limited supplies, it cannot be sustained. This scales to human populations; as humans are composed of cells. Environmental conditions are part of the equation of understanding growth rates.

Windows of Time:

Consider a dish of cells in a fortified solution. The solution is fortified with a finite amount of resources for the production of new cells. While the supply of resources meets the demands of the growing culture of cells, the growth of the culture of cells is exponential; as the cells divide in a doubling process. As time goes on, and the supply of resources is exhausted, the production of new cells slows; and when the supply of resources is completely expended, growth of the culture stops, and the cells begin to die off.

Graphing such a thought experiment is done by tracking it in two dimensions. Since it’s the growth rate that is of interest, the dimensions are growth and time; to express growth over time. During the time frame when the supply of resources meets the demand, the curve being plotted is an exponential curve; due to the uninhibited doubling process. Add the window of time where the resources are expended, and the curve being plotted becomes an S curve; as the slowing of growth propagates. Add the time frame where the resources have been completely expended, and the curve becomes a bell curve; as the cells dying off propagates. This is however a observation of a closed system; and economies are not closed systems, with such finite resources and time constraints.

The feedback loop between species and environment can be seen as a combination of growth and adaptation with species, and accommodation and challenge from the environment. In short time frames these are often plotted as S curves as the species thrive in taking advantage of favorable environmental conditions, and adapt when environmental conditions are not so favorable. As time goes on, this becomes a series of S curves; as species thrive and adapt. In observing much longer windows of time, in order to get a general sense of growth rates, the series of S curves become a logarithmic curve. This suggests that growth rates are generally logarithmic; when observed in nature in a more general sense.

Growth Rates and Socioeconomics:

To have a sufficient understanding of how human societies and global populations grow economically; it may be necessary to apply all of the factors; not only from the environment, but also from the adaptations. This is why OpenNS reduces growth into types that appear to be relevant. Human economies grow in different ways; due to their complexity, which resulted from human adaptations. Human economies grow in complexities, dynamics and technological advancements that have become in and of themselves artificial environmental conditions.

Plotting the growth of human advancement over it’s entirety is of course generally logarithmic. There has been a recent spike of adaptation; but this is not in any way unique. Based on the tendencies of the feedback loop between human and environment, and the observations of the challenges that are propagating, there is no reason to suspect that the current spike is more than just a spike. Of course, the advancements would likely continue; however, it appears that efforts to meet these challenges will consume resources, both environmental and human; diverting them from leverage toward further advancements.

Both the business and economic cycles can be effectively expressed with bell curves. Though it’s not a proper, general representation of growth rates; it effectively expresses the consequences of improper application of economic study; or more precisely, the lack of proper application. The bell curve initially expresses the gains of complexity; and following, the losses of it. The difference between the overall logarithmic curve and more immediate bell curve does not appear to be a coincidence. The difference in the observations in time frames correlates to the manner in which economics tends to be approached. The tendency to focus on short term gains is an obvious factor in the propagation of economic crises. The observations are consistent and clear.

Closing:

The roots of the issues appear to be lack of proper application of economic study in global economics, persistent, pathologically competitive dogma, and human tendency toward negative utility. The failures of lack of economic application are thus used to justify the pathologically competitive dogma; with circular reasoning.